Cent Eur J Public Health 2015, 23(3):227-232 | DOI: 10.21101/cejph.a4076

Mathematical Modelling of Varicella Spread in Slovakia

Jana Zibolenová1, Veronika Szabóová1, Tibor Baška1, Daniel Ševčovič2, Henrieta Hudečková1
1 Department of Public Health, Jessenius Faculty of Medicine in Martin, Comenius University in Bratislava, Martin, Slovak Republic
2 Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Aim: Varicella is a highly contagious disease. In Slovakia, 15,000-30,000 cases are reported annually. However, vaccination against varicella is not widely used in Slovakia. The aim of this paper is to predict the influence of vaccination administrated in different ages on the disease occurrence in different age groups.

Methods: Deterministic, age-stratified SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with stable population was used for prediction of varicella spread in Slovakia.

Results: Vaccination of a group designated as 0 influences the proportion of susceptible and infected persons in all age groups, vaccination of 10 years old ones affects only the proportion of susceptible and infected individuals older than 10 years.

Conclusion: The increase of vaccination coverage should have a positive impact on the incidence of varicella in Slovakia. In case of vaccination coverage of 0 group in the range of 30-75%, it is necessary to pay attention to the protection of older children and adults.

Keywords: varicella, vaccination, mathematical modelling, Slovakia, deterministic model

Received: August 18, 2014; Revised: April 25, 2015; Accepted: April 25, 2015; Published: September 1, 2015  Show citation

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Zibolenová J, Szabóová V, Baška T, Ševčovič D, Hudečková H. Mathematical Modelling of Varicella Spread in Slovakia. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2015;23(3):227-232. doi: 10.21101/cejph.a4076. PubMed PMID: 26615655.
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